Posts Tagged Semyon Varlamov

Fantasy Hockey Friday

Two weeks ago, we brought you an in depth breakdown of team stats around the NHL that could help give a better indication on how your goalie may fare on any given night against any given opponent. This week we turn the tables a bit to analyze more team stats, but this time focus on the impact of these stats for forwards and defenseman.

A good Fantasy Hockey league setup has roster positions and bench positions so that on some nights, when most everyone on your team is playing, you have to make the tough decisions regarding who to bench and who to play. So as a Manager, how do you decide which players to play and which to sit?

Sometimes it comes down to a “hunch” or intuition. Obviously your star players will likely get spots because they are more likely to put points on the board. Players on hot streaks may also get the nod over someone that is slumping. Or you may choose to go by which team any given player is playing against that night.

For instance, if you’re trying to decide between two players, and one is playing against the New York Rangers while the other is playing against the Tampa Bay Lightning, you may want to consider playing your guy against Tampa Bay. Why? Because Tampa Bay averages 3.47 goals against per game while the Rangers average 1.98 goals against per game, meaning there is a greater probability that your player will score against Tampa Bay.

Here is a breakdown of the top five teams in the league with the lowest goals against averages per game:

New York Rangers (1.98)

St. Louis Blues (1.98)

Boston Bruins (2.02)

Los Angeles Kings (2.13)

San Jose Sharks (2.28)

Similarly, here are the worst five teams in the NHL with the highest goals against averages per game:

Tampa Bay Lightning (3.47)

Columbus Blue Jackets (3.22)

Carolina Hurricanes (3.17)

Ottawa Senators (3.08)

Toronto Maple Leafs (3.07)

The Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders also have averages of 3.00 goals against per game or better as well.

You can also get a good idea of how your players will fare by looking at which goalie he will face that night. And these numbers don’t always correlate with the team average.

Boston has a low enough team goals against per game average, but backup netminder Tuukka Rask actually has a lower goals against average than starter Tim Thomas. This means that your player is more likely to score on Thomas than on Rask, but the likelihood that he will score against Boston at all is slim.

Consider the Colorado Avalanche as well. As a whole, the team averages 2.85 goals allowed per game. However, goaltenders Semyon Varlamov and J.S. Giguere have basically split time, but Varlamov’s goals against average is much higher at 3.00 goals against per game than Giguere’s 2.12 goals against per game. So if Varlamov gets the start, play against him with confidence.

The Philadelphia Flyers have a similar issue with Ilya Bryzgalov (3.00) and Sergei Bobrovsky (2.42). Thankfully for Fantasy Managers, Bryzgalov gets the majority of the starts with 30 this season compared to Bobrovsky’s 14.

It doesn’t happen often when you have a full slate of games and have to make the tough choices as a manager on whom to bench and whom to play, but knowing the odds can help you make the right decision in the future. It’s not fool-proof by any means, but it’s a step in the right direction.

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Hockey World Blog Season Previews 2010: Washington Capitals

Key Offseason Losses: Eric Belanger, Milan Jurcina, Brendan Morrison, Shaone Morrisonn, Jose Theodore

Key Offseason Additions: Dany Sabourin

Last Season Ranking: 1st in East

Backstrom, Ovechkin and Semin could all break the 100 point mark this season for the Capitals

Backstrom, Ovechkin and Semin could all break the 100 point mark this season for the Capitals

Offense:

The Washington Capitals bring arguably the NHL’s most prolific offense to the ice again this season. Alex Ovechkin has reached at least 50 goals and 100 points in four out of five NHL seasons so far. He’s a dynamic player, moves very well on the ice, has a terrific shot, and just knows how to put the puck in the net. Of course it doesn’t hurt when the man centering you is one of the most talented playmakers in the league. Nicklas Backstrom has continued his growth year after year in the league, tallying 33 goals and 68 assists last season, breaking the 100 point mark for the first time in his young career. He should be right back around that mark this season as he and Ovechkin will continue to dominate. Finishing out the triple threat is Alexander Semin. He’s playing in the final year of his contract and will more than likely become a free agent next summer, so expect his production to be steady or increase. By the way, Semin notched 40 goals and 44 assists of his own last season, so any more production out of this guy could lead him to a 100 point campaign as well.

While it may seem like there is quite a weight on the backs of those three players, the depth of the Washington Capitals forwards has been growing in recent years. The most promising, I believe, is Tomas Fleischmann. His production has increased in recent seasons as he continued to work hard and earn more ice time. He started last season on IR, but then came in hot, scoring 11 points in his first 10 games back (including a 9 game point streak). He churned along the rest of the season and finished with 51 points in 69 games, including 20 points on the power play. Continuing down the line you have Brooks Laich and Mike Knuble, a couple of veteran scoring wingers who can do some damage of their own. This team should have no problem leading the league in goals for again this season.

Defense:

Overall, the defense is one year older and wiser. We’ve seen the past few seasons that the run and gun style of the Capitals can be highly successful in the regular season, but come playoff time, you’re lost if you don’t have great defense. Fortunately they bring back a solid one-two punch with Mike Green and Jeff Schultz. Green is an offensively gifted defenseman, putting up 70+ points in each of the last two seasons. Shultz is more of a big bodied, laid back defenseman. It allows the two to work smoothly with the likes of Ovechkin and Backstrom, and remain effective in getting them the puck. Both are still young, however, and after experiences last season, they should come in this season ready to play the way it takes to win a championship.

Beyond that, the Capitals have a couple veteran defenders in Tom Poti and John Erskine. They should have also learned from frustrating playoff losses, and be able to help the young guys make the transition with their leadership. It will be especially useful for the likes of John Carlson and Karl Alzner, both of whom are young and talented, but have yet to see a full season in the NHL.

Goaltending:

After deciding to part ways with Jose Theodore, the Capitals look to finally hand the reigns over to the young Semyon Varlamov. While Varlamov showed promise in the 2008 playoffs, he wasn’t able to fully grab the starting job after struggling with injuries last season. Overall, however, his numbers were good. He finished the year 15-4-6 with a .909 save percentage and a 2.55 goals against average. Varlamov is a very talented and athletic goalie, moves well in the net, and should be able to hold on to his number one role this season.

Backing up Varlamov will be another young goalie, Michal Neuvirth. He started 16 games last season for the caps, filling in when injuries plagued the other netminders. He’ll see some more time this season, but could be splitting back up duties with recently acquired Dany Sabourin, who was a nice offseason depth signing by the Capitals.

Season Outlook:

The reigning President’s Trophy winners should be tearing up scoresheets once again this year. Their offense is the NHL’s best as teams still struggle to contain their top scorers during the regular season. It’s likely that Washington will run through the competition in 2010-11 and finish the season among the leaders in the standings, with a good chance of repeating as the winner of the President’s Trophy. The real test will come playoff time again. Do the Capitals have what it takes to win low scoring games with lots of battles? Can the defense and goaltender shut down the opposition? And finally, can players like Mike Green and Alexander Semin, who were seemingly absent in the 2010 playoffs, show up and be as productive as they are during the season? The Washington Capitals are one year older, wiser, and hungrier. With the lessons they’ve learned, expect them to go far this season.

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Washington Capitals

Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals will repeat as Division Champions this season

Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals will repeat as Division Champions this season

Get ready it’s our time.

This tagline, along with a picture of the Stanley Cup, was featured on a shirt worn by none other than Alexander Ovechkin during the Washington Capitals Media Day. Despite losing two key veteran leaders, Sergei Fedorov and Donald Brashear, in the off-season, the Capitals are very confident in their abilities this upcoming season.

Young players such as Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green and Ovechkin are all ready to make the jump to that next level. They can all score, and are each capable of putting together 75+ point seasons. With the experience developed by these young guns over the past two seasons, its going to be hard for anyone to stop them come playoff time.

On top of that, add in the free agent signings of Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison to the roster. Last season for the Flyers, Knuble chipped in 27 goals along with 20 assists for a 47 point campaign. Brendan Morrison, splitting time between Anaheim and Dallas last season, totaled 31 points on 16 goals and 15 assists. Clearly offensive production should not be a problem for the Caps this season.

Defensively the Capitals are just as strong as last year. Mike Green will lead the way with a terrific plus/minus and strong skating and scoring abilities. Shaone Morrisonn, Tom Poti and Milan Jurcina are big, strong, gritty defenseman who will work well to shut down the opposition.

Between the pipes, Bruce Boudreau has given the starting role back to Jose Theodore heading into training camp. Theodore had a poor showing in last seasons playoffs in which Semyon Varlamov relieved him. Boudreau and the Capitals never looked back as Varlamov continued to play well, posting a .918 save percentage and 2.53 goals against average in 13 games. Varlamov is sure to see more time this season than he did in 2008-09, however.

The Capitals should cruise through the regular season to a first place finish in the Southeast Division. Their best games will be those against Boston, and the defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Come playoff time, however, the Capitals will make a huge push. Don’t be surprised if you see them playing into June next year.

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