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NHL 2011-12 Season Preview: Dallas Stars

Sep 19

Posted by EB in Season Previews | No Comments

Key Offseason Losses: Brad Richards, James Neal, Jamie Langenbrunner

Key Offseason Additions: Michael Ryder, Radek Dvorak, Vernon Fiddler, Jake Dowell, Sheldon Souray

Last Season Ranking: 9th in the West

Offense: It is hard not to think how the pending bankruptcy and sale of the Dallas Stars will negatively impact the overall play of the team. The Stars will be going through a lot of tough times this season, on the ice being a major one.

Two big players, Brad Richards and James Neal, both have found new organizations to play for. Together, the two scored 49 goals and assisted on 67 others. That is 22% of the teams overall goals scored and 19% of of the Stars’ overall points.

Goaltender Kari Lehtonen is actually a good goalie. Unfortunately for him, the Dallas Stars do not have the offensive firepower this year to help him out.

Making things worse, the team added only one superstar and a few depth players to fill the gaps. Michael Ryder is coming off of a long season winning the Stanley Cup with the Boston Bruins. Ryder is averaging 47 points over 7 seasons, but lackluster line mates on the second line may decrease his output. From a fantasy perspective, if he does get bumped up to the top line or plays along side Brendan Morrow or Mike Ribeiro, or if Ryder sees time on the power play, the odds of him reaching his average points greatly increases.

Radek Dvorak and Vernon Fiddler should be decent additions for depth on the third line, however, both players are in their 30′s in a game that has continually seen younger and younger players dominate.

Brendon Morrow, Mike Ribeiro and Loui Eriksson will continue to be called upon to lead the team throughout the season. Morrow seems to be healthy from his right knee surgery in 2009 that sidelined him for 64 games. Last season he played all 82 games. Ribeiro continues to be a point getter, assisting on 52 goals last year. The Stars hope he can improve upon his 20 goal range though. Lastly, Eriksson continues to become an elite athlete coming into his 6th season. Throughout his career, Eriksson has 257 points in 371 games, most recently, two seasons in a row over the 70 point mark.

Defense: The Stars need to better their defense to be any type of competitor this season. Top players Stephane Robidas and Alex Goligoski had excellent point production seasons, but the two need to better their overall plus/minus. Perhaps the two need to take some notes from Trevor Daley and Nicklas Grossman who both had a plus 7 rating over the season.

Dallas did pick up one more piece in the off-season, that being big named, hard slapshot, Sheldon Souray. Souray really upset people with the Edmonton Oilers’ organization, seeing his contract bought out and kicked to the curb. In part, it was his high cap hit that deterred teams from picking him up and instead saw him play in the AHL by being loaned to the Hershey Bears. At a modest 1.65 million 1-year contract from the Stars, if Souray wants to continue in the NHL, this year is a make or break for him.

Goaltending: Many fans were upset when Marty Turco left the team to go play for the Chicago Blackhawks, but in hindsight, where is Turco now? Kari Lehtonen takes the number one spot and is actually a solid netminder. A 34-24-11 record last year did not give any justice to his 2.55 goals against average. Not convinced? Ryan Miller of the Buffalo Sabres had a 2.59 goals against average.

Playoff Prediction: Not making the playoffs. A pending bankruptcy and sale of the team, factor with a lack of offense, the Dallas Stars will come up short again this year.

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Khabibulin to Serve Jail Time in DUI Case

Jul 28

Posted by Eddie in News | 1 Comment

No one wants to spend time in jail, but Edmonton goalie Nikokai Khabibulin will spend 30 days between jail and house arrest after not continuing to appeal his DUI charge in Arizona earlier this week. The DUI occurred February 8, 2010 when he was caught driving 70 mph in a 45 mph zone near his Phoenix area home. When he was pulled over, Khabibulin was arrested after a field sobriety test showed his blood-alcohol level at .164, more than double the legal limit in Arizona. He was in Phoenix while recovering from an injury he suffered while in Edmonton.

Khabibulin, 38, played for Phoenix from 1996-99. He signed a four-year, $15 million deal with Edmonton in 2009. He was originally sentenced last August but decided to appeal. He withdrew the appeal after realizing the court process would linger into Edmonton’s training camp and potentially the regular season, preventing him from being in two different cities and countries at the same time. He wanted to get the situation behind him and focus on training camp and the upcoming season.

In a statement, he said “Despite assurances by legal counsel regarding the strength of my appeals case, I have decided to withdraw my appeal and proceed with sentencing. Once completed, I eagerly anticipate a timely return to Edmonton for training camp, where I will strive to be the best player, teammate and citizen possible.”

He will not spend the entire 30-day sentence behind bars, Khabibulin will serve the first 15 days of his sentence in jail with work release and the other half of his sentence under house arrest. He will have to wear an ankle monitor and is subject to random alcohol testing.

The Oilers open preseason action with split-squad games September 20. One half of the team will take on Minnesota at home while the other half will travel to Saskatoon, SK to play Chicago.

 

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Ryan Smyth Trade Rumors

Jun 26

Posted by EB in News, Rumors, Soap Box | No Comments

For those not living under a rock, news media everywhere are reporting on the potential return of Ryan Smyth to the Edmonton Oilers.  The trade is currently put on hold though, leaving this story to have more drama than a soap opera.

The frenzy began with TSN reporting that Ryan Smyth had removed his no trade clause in hopes of returning back to the Edmonton Oilers. Smyth, who currently plays for the Los Angeles Kings, started his career in Edmonton back in the 1994-1995 season as a rookie and played for 12 seasons with the club.

The rumors began to continue from there, as it was then reported that Smyth would be moving to the Calgary Flames. The deal seemed possible as the Calgary Flames have asked defenseman Robyn Regher to remove his no trade clause. With the removal of Regher, the Flames look to be cleaning up cap space. Once again, the Calgary rumor began to fizzle.

Rumors and talks are not done yet. A “done deal” trade between the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings has Captain Canada in exchange for a Gilbert Brule and a fourth round draft pick. Oh what another disappointment for fans as the deal is yet again falling through.

Why you ask? Because Brule is currently injured. The Los Angeles Kings had the intent of buying out Brule, however the collective bargaining agreement forbids teams from buying out an injured player.

Where this story ends no one knows. What I do know is that there has been some lousy reporting. Sure Smyth could have gone to the Calgary Flames, but don’t count your chickens before they hatch. And the report of Smyth going to the Edmonton Oilers for Brule seems like a no brainer when it is known you cannot buyout an injured player’s contract. Why even print stuff when you know it cannot be done? Heck, Yahoo! even has Smyth already on the Edmonton Oilers.

If I were Smyth, I would stay in L.A.. At 35 years of age, I would want a chance at the Stanley Cup, a chance the developing Oilers will not have for another 3-5 years. The Kings on the other hand, recently picked up star center Mike Richards from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for forwards Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn. Throw in a healthy Anze Kopitar, the Kings will not only look to make a push to the top of the tough Pacific Division, but a push for the Stanley Cup.

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Oilers must choose offense or defense at NHL Entry Draft

Jun 24

Posted by Chris in Soap Box | No Comments

Last season, when the NHL was abuzz with the Taylor vs Tyler debate, there was no consensus number one draft choice as both Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin possessed a high level of skill. The Edmonton Oilers finally decided to take Taylor Hall number one overall for his scoring ability. This year, however, the Oilers find themselves in a similar position with the number one pick, but this time around, it may come down to needs over wants.

The general consensus for most hockey pundits is that forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the WHL is the best talent overall and ranks tops amongst most draft lists thanks to his supreme play-making abilities, his willingness to battle for the puck and his outstanding defensive capabilities.

The Oilers opt may go a different route, however, and leave Nugent-Hopkins on the board for the number two team to grab. Instead, the Oilers may select a defenseman, the massive Adam Larsson from the Swedish Elite League. Larsson possesses a big frame at 6-foot-3 and over 200 pounds, but he has also been hailed as a highly-intelligent puck-moving defenseman with comparisons to Nicklas Lidstrom abound. The Oilers need a top defenseman and Larsson appears to be a player they could build their blue line around for years to come.

As a team in full on rebuilding mode, the Oilers have some tough decisions before the first round of the NHL Draft tonight. If the Oilers decide to nab Nugent-Hopkins, they could potentially be getting a solid two-way player whose play-making abilities would complement the goal-scoring abilities of Taylor Hall and could create a fearsome duo up front for the Oilers. With good defensive talent available via free agency this summer, the Oilers very well may opt to go this route. But Larsson could be a franchise defender, a player that the team can build around on the blue line and one that could pay immediate dividends in the NHL after three years in the Swedish Elite League.

Either way, the Oilers are guaranteed to get a top-notch player capable of helping their cause. They have a young team bursting with talent with players such as Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson up front for the squad. Either Nugent-Hopkins or Larsson would fit right in and pay immediate dividends for the Oilers.

The first round of the NHL Entry Draft will take place tonight at 7 p.m. Round two through seven will take place Saturday afternoon. For a great NHL Draft preview, check out NBC’s first round mock draft that offers great information on all of the potential selections at tonight’s draft.

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With Draft Lottery tonight, still no consensus on #1 pick

Apr 12

Posted by Chris in News | 1 Comment

Last year it was the Taylor Hall/Tyler Seguin debate. The year before that John Tavares was the consensus number one while there was no doubt that Steve Stamkos would be taken tops overall in 2008. This year, however, there is much more debate on who will be taken number one overall at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

The NHL will hold its annual NHL Draft Lottery tonight with several teams hoping to nab the number one overall pick and be able to select a top prospect capable of paying immediate dividends for the team next season. The Edmonton Oilers, who sported the league’s worst record this season, have the best chance at getting the top pick with a 48.2 percent chance at winning the lottery. Colorado and Florida are close behind with 18.8 and 14.2 percents respectively. The New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators are also long shots for the top pick.

NHL Central Scouting released their final rankings last week with Red Deer Rebels center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stealing the top spot on the list by a very narrow margin. Nugent-Hopkins, who posted 31 goals and 106 points in 69 games for Red Deer, was ranked third in the mid-season rankings before jumping to the top spot in the final rankings.

“It was close,” said NHL scout Dave Gregory. “It was not a slam dunk by any means and there was a lot of debate but he nudged his way as the top guy this year with a very close vote.”

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Nugent-Hopkins will go number one. Last year Tyler Seguin was ranked number one while Taylor Hall was ranked second. Still, the Edmonton Oilers opted to choose Hall over Seguin with their top pick. Teams will be faced with much tougher decisions at the top of the draft this year.

“I think the talent is deeper at the top and there’s a lot more parity there (than in the past),” Gregory said. “It’s sometimes more difficult to say there’s not a Taylor (Hall) vs. Tyler (Seguin) — two elite guys.”

After taking Taylor Hall first overall in last season’s draft, the Oilers are certainly hoping for the top spot again this year to help add to their influx of incredible young talent that also includes Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark.

The NHL Draft Lottery will take place tonight at 8 p.m. The NHL Entry Draft will be held June 24-25 in St. Paul, Minn.

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Roloson, Dubnyk make case for save of the year

Mar 27

Posted by Chris in Media | No Comments

As much as we all love a good deke or an awesome dangle, it takes an incredible presence of mind to be the top goaltender for any organization – especially since the blame seems to fall on the goalie’s shoulders more often than not when a team just isn’t playing all that great. That’s because goalies, more than most other players on the ice, have the ability to single-handedly change the course of a game with their sharp play as they leave snipers from the other squad shaking their heads wondering what they need to do to beat the brick wall in front of them. Check out the two videos below of goaltenders Dwayne Roloson and Devan Dubnyk doing just that to their opposition. Don’t be surprised if both of these saves become candidates for Save of the Year this summer.

Roloson’s amazing acro-bat-ics:

Dubnyk robs Jokinen of a gimme:

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Waiting for sunrise

Mar 7

Posted by Ric in News | No Comments

And so the process continues.

It was to be expected; Hemsky and Penner were good considerations for teams willing to trade a bunch of futures for one good present.

And it was good for us; futures are important, we are told, so much so that the party – as they sit in a cozy basement suite working on the blueprints for 2015 – calls them planks.

But the trade raises two questions: Is that all it was, mortgaging the present for the future, and What will life be like without Dustin Penner?

With respect to the former, there is a subset of questions within: Did he want to play here, and what was money’s role?

When the off-season began, Tambo went Rambo; few survived. And it worked; the culture seemed to change. This finish – hopefully last again – looks the same but feels different. More positive, as if an elixir of hope has imbued itself into the beer around here.

According to the aforementioned blueprint, if somebody doesn’t want to be here, they shouldn’t. In short order, they weren’t. And now Penner isn’t.

Posit: If all Edmontonians making four million/year were offered a choice between earning it here or earning it in LA, what result would the poll return? More specifically, if the question was posed to Penner – as he works his way to work in -30oC, through the blowing snow, around the stalls and traffic accidents – what would his answer be?

They call it rebuilding

It was expected because we are a team of the future, not the present. And if two of the three prospects we received in return (one corporeal, Colten Teubert, and two draft picks) is on the team in three years, then we did the right thing; the benefits for the future out weight a loss in the present. Add a vacuum in the line-up that is sure to suck up another test subject, and you have the makings of a long-term, winning strategy. A vindication of the blueprint.

Such is the party line.

But then there is the money. Oilers owner, Darly Katz, has stated that he is subsidizing the team, to the tune of millions per year. Did Dustin’s desire to have orange trees in his backyard rather than winter tires in his garage co-join with Darly’s desire to redirect Penner’s paycheck back into his pocket?

If so, then perhaps the noble goal of shaping a future winner was not the motivator. Perhaps it was something a little more crass: personal quality of life and a better bottom line.

And if that is the case, does it speak of the base desires of the parties involved, or does it speak of the futility of being a fan? Does it not illustrate that our needs, wants and desires are but secondary considerations?

Penner-less

Every year, melodically, methodically, we would place our projections on Dustin’s back.

With the consistency of a metronome, each season began with the belief that Dustin would develop into team lead, use his imposing size to project a protective presence on the ice, lead the team in goals, hits and interviews.

That he would define the team’s character.

At the end of every season we would either ready our excuses or sharpen the knives, depending upon which riverbank we were camped.

But those days ended yesterday, leaving a void. Who now will we claim is underachieving?

A problem with potential

Penner is a big boy and there was always the expectation that he would explore using it as a weapon; that he would develop into a “tough” forward who plays with “physicality”.

The concept never caught on with him.

It never will.

Yet, after all the hopes and dreams, accusations and admonishments are stripped away, he remains the last thirty-goal scorer since Ryan Smith, 06/07.

He will be missed.

Godspeed, Dustin Penner. May your shots have eyes, your hits be clean, your seasons be injury free and, one day, may the hockey gods grace your finger with a ring.

As for us, we are still here – amongst the cold, the snow, the tow trucks – waiting for the dawn that is said to bring a contender.

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Oilers at the deadline: Penner vs. the World

Feb 26

Posted by Matt in Guest Article, News, Soap Box | No Comments

Dustin PennerThe following is a guest post by Ric, who will be contributing more frequently about the Edmonton Oilers.

In some respects, the Oilers are in an envious position.

They are looking at another lottery pick and have chips to play at the deadline.

The most valuable chips: forwards Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner.

Talent and toughness, for the right price.

Assessing the fit

As we have little to no access to the offers being floated, let us concern ourselves with: who should go, should both go, should we stand pat.

The resolution to such a concern starts at the NHL’s statistical database.

But before we begin our journey, a couple of words on the validity of their ability to assist with such a resolution.

Can statistics lie?

Real time stats are recorded by a myopic, dual – Bluetooth enabled – ear pieces wearing, curmudgeon with an HB2.

Although reality must be different; there are doubts nevertheless, because the statistics provided by the league are, in many respects, a fall woefully short of anything approaching comprehensive. A couple of quick examples: they don’t provide who was on the ice when a shot was taken, they don’t even hint at shot range.

All too often they misrepresent the activity by – and disrespect the accomplishments of – the players on the ice.

Sadly, it has come to where you start wondering, as you file into Rexall, “Should I grab any curmudgeon I see, destroy his glasses and dual – Bluetooth enabled – ear pieces, on the off chance that he is the guy responsible?”.

Real numbers; real issues

A classic, and painful, example is the discrepancy between venues in the giveaways/takeaways record.

The official statistics from nhl.com report that thus far this year:

Home Giveaways Road Giveaways Differential*
EDM 556 194 2.87
CBJ 86 172 0.50
Home Takeaways Road Takeaways Differential*
EDM 296 148 2.00
ANA 105 198 0.53

*Home/Road

Does the NHL really expect us to believe that the Oilers give up the puck three times more frequently at home?

Turnovers are the crucible in which the ability to possess the puck, control the flow and create or maintain momentum are put to trial, and the results of the test often determine whether games are won or lost.

But despite their status as a key determinate of success, the NHL seems rather blasé – flippant and/or uncaring at best, criminally negligent at worst – when it comes to recording them for posterity.

So, with such obvious and egregious flaws, how can giveaways/takeaways – or more broadly any NHL stat – assist in the resolution of the question at hand or advance our understanding of the value of potential trades and the embedded tradees?

In a vacuum, it can’t.

The lesson? That statistical analysis and interpretations maybe no more insightful than our subjective and biased eyes.

But aren’t pay grades based on “The Numbers”?

Paying for productivity

Image this contract conversation:

Owner: Okay, how much do you want?

Player: $100,000.00 (all money C$)

Owner: Sounds good, I will pay you that if you give me what I want.

Player: Please tell me the rumours aren’t true.

Owner: I want a 20/20/20/20/20 season.

(goals/assists/shots/hits/blocks – which begs the question: if he hits them all, does he become a five tool guy?)

Player: Should be doable, I did (redacted) last season and I am only (redacted).

Owner: Good. This should work then?

Owner takes a pull from his cigar and slides a piece of paper across the desk which reads:

Goals Assists Shots Hits Blocks
Expectation 20 20 20 20 20
Event’s Value $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Total $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000
Contract Value at Expectations $100,000

This hypothetical scenario has been provided to offer some context for the tables to follow.

Caveats

In the following breakdown, time on ice is used as the benchmark against which per 60 (an effort at understanding relative productivity by representing events on a per minute basis) as well as calculating hourly wage (salary divided by prorated, total time played).

Finally, goals, assists, shots, blocked shots and hits are given equal weighting and $/stat X represents one-fifth of total cap hit as a result.

Playing Time Games Played Average Time on Ice Cap Hit
Dustin Penner 55 18:35 $4,500,000
Ales Hemsky 39 18:26 $4,100,000
Jordan Eberle 43 17:56 $1,530,000
Milan Hejduk 50 17:38 $3,000,000
Kristian Huselius 33 16:25 $4,750,000
Dany Heatley 58 19:57 $7,500,000
David Backes 55 20:01 $2,500,000
Ryan Malone 50 16:14 $4,500,000

Backes stands out as exceptional value, but none of the group is hurting their team to the point where a simulated kidnapping is in order.

Games played 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Prorated*
Dustin Penner 82 78 82 55 80.54
Ales Hemsky 74 72 22 39 57.11
Jordan Eberle N/A N/A N/A 43 62.96
Milan Hejduk 77 82 56 50 73.21
Kristian Huselius 81 74 74 33 48.32
Dany Heatley 71 82 82 58 84.93
David Backes N/A 82 79 55 80.54
Ryan Malone N/A N/A 69 50 73.21

*used to determine the $ per stats.

Raw Productivity Goals per 60 $/Goal
Dustin Penner 20 1.17 $45,818.18
Ales Hemsky 9 0.75 $130,826.21
Jordan Eberle 11 0.86 $36,228.33
Milan Hejduk 17 1.16 $39,529.41
Kristian Huselius 12 1.33 $134,343.43
Dany Heatley 19 0.99 $76,225.05
David Backes 20 1.09 $25,454.55
Ryan Malone 11 0.81 $91,636.36
Raw Productivity Assists per 60 $/Assist
Dustin Penner 16 0.94 $57,272.73
Ales Hemsky 24 2.00 $49,059.83
Jordan Eberle 18 1.40 $22,139.53
Milan Hejduk 28 1.91 $24,000.00
Kristian Huselius 8 0.89 $201,515.15
Dany Heatley 28 1.45 $51,724.14
David Backes 21 1.15 $24,242.42
Ryan Malone 23 1.70 $43,826.09

This looks about right, unless you are Scott Howson.

Both Penner and Hemmer show well, except perhaps for Hemsky’s scoring numbers, but that is mitigated somewhat by his assist line.

Shooting Efficiency Shots per 60 Shots per Goal $/Shot
Dustin Penner 124 7.27 6.20 $7,390.03
Ales Hemsky 78 6.49 8.67 $15,095.33
Jordan Eberle 92 7.15 8.36 $4,331.65
Milan Hejduk 120 8.18 7.06 $5,600.00
Kristian Huselius 80 8.87 6.67 $20,151.52
Dany Heatley 160 8.30 8.42 $9,051.72
David Backes 148 8.07 7.40 $3,439.80
Ryan Malone 140 10.34 12.73 $7,200.00

Here Penner shows surprising accuracy, Backes again demonstrates good value, and Malone needs to shoot more than most due to the Lord equipping him with a shotgun rather than something with a scope.

The Body Hits per 60 $/Hit
Dustin Penner 54 3.17 $16,969.70
Ales Hemsky 28 2.33 $42,051.28
Jordan Eberle 14 1.09 $28,465.12
Milan Hejduk 6 0.41 $112,000.00
Kristian Huselius 1 0.11 $1,612,121.21
Dany Heatley 60 3.11 $24,137.93
David Backes 147 8.02 $3,463.20
Ryan Malone 106 7.83 $9,509.43

Per minute is fun and occasionally insightful; per dollar is hilarious and occasionally embarrassing.

The Body Blocks per 60 $/Block
Dustin Penner 24 1.41 $38,181.82
Ales Hemsky 14 1.16 $84,102.56
Jordan Eberle 11 0.86 $36,228.33
Milan Hejduk 26 1.77 $25,846.15
Kristian Huselius 3 0.33 $537,373.74
Dany Heatley 23 1.19 $62,968.52
David Backes 25 1.36 $20,363.64
Ryan Malone 19 1.40 $53,052.63

Looks like Penner wants to play for this team.

Conclusion teasers

What do these numbers tell us? Not much we didn’t already know.

But the question of Penner/Hemmer status needs to go beyond the numbers for it has a distinctly second bananian scent to it.

They are Barney, not Fred, Robin, not Batman, Martin, not Lewis.

But isn’t that okay? Doesn’t every team need a couple of Barney’s?

If we trade one or both, will we find ourselves wondering two years from now: If only we had a strong, threatening second line centreman?

The substitution effect

We have holes, but the front six, perhaps the front nine, does not number among them.

But by spending a chip, would we fill a hole only to dig another?

Getting out of the basement

If Hall and Eberle are who we think they are, we are going to need some straight men.

Men that can take on their second line and win.

Penner and Hemmer are just those kind of guys.

They are quality, perhaps not elite, but appropriately priced, on a team that has cap room.

And they work well into the future of this team.

Conclusion

Keepers.

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Oilers at the Deadline: The Goalie Anomaly

Feb 18

Posted by Matt in Guest Article, News | No Comments

The below post is from a guest contributor, Ric, who will be providing some great additional posts over the next few weeks.

Nikolai Khabibulin, after spending most of last year on IR, returned from the off-season healthier than he had been in years, and with potential prison time pushed to next year’s off-season, he looked ready to deliver on this year’s $3.75 million dollar paycheck.

What do you do with a thirty-eight year old, apparently good for 50-60 games, ring wearing three and three quarter million dollar goalie on a team that won’t make the playoffs this year or next?

The set-up

You spotlight him, give him fifteen or so of the first twenty, show everyone that he is good to go and back to form.

To insure coverage upon the inevitable, you embrace unorthodoxy and keep on the roster three goalies to start the season.

The pitch

Then you trade him.

It would have been beautiful.

If only it went down.

38 year old Oiler = oxymoron.

Losing was part of the plan, investing in a future filled with success was our dream.

Throw the rooks to the wolves and let the wolves decide was the mantra.

Except, it would seem, in the goalmouth.

One of the original three was sent down without starting a game (Deslauriers); another has out played the vet (Dubnyk), and the call up when Kaby was hurt won both the games he played (Gerber).

The ages of two of the players (consider Gerber an anomaly inside an anomaly, more on this later) mentioned above – combined – don’t add up to 38 (all numbers approximate).

Yet Kaby has garnered a number one’s share of games, and with every game he plays, his trade value – sadly, unfortunately, inconsolably – declines.

Consider the numbers

Heads up: All stats from nhl.com as of February 12, but before the noon game, per 60 is time on ice production broken down into sixty minutes – in other words, a feeble attempt to compensate for ice time.

Comparison players were not chosen by median or average and, except for Tim, were not league leaders by category selected.

The benchmarks were chosen by personal bias.

Peer performance

Games Started Wins Wins per 60 Cap Hit (Millions)
Tim Thomas 38 26 0.664 $5.0
Roberto Luongo 41 26 0.637 $5.33
Miikka Kiprusoff 48 24 0.507 $5.83
Dwayne Roloson 33 14 0.438 $2.5
Devan Dubnyk 18 6 0.306 $0.8
Nikolai Khabibulin 34 8 0.245 $3.75
Martin Gerber 2 2 1.000 $0.5

Defining the skill and value of a goalie will never be accomplished by the table above; hockey is a team game.

But the cost per win number is a little unsettling. And it makes one wonder all the more: why is he here?

Goals Goals per 60
Martin Gerber 3 1.50
Tim Thomas 75 1.92
Roberto Luongo 91 2.23
Dwayne Roloson 84 2.63
Miikka Kiprusoff 128 2.70
Devan Dubnyk 54 2.76
Nikolai Khabibulin 113 3.46

Another number that is heavily influence by the team that surrounds them, but a disturbing trend is starting to emerge, once Martin “Small sample stat skewer” Gerber is disregarded.

Shots Shots per 60 Shots per Goal
Martin Gerber 60 30.00 20.00
Tim Thomas 1280 32.69 17.07
Roberto Luongo 1235 30.26 13.57
Devan Dubnyk 637 32.50 11.80
Dwayne Roloson 988 30.89 11.76
Miikka Kiprusoff 1310 27.66 10.23
Nikolai Khabibulin 1036 31.69 9.17

After the fluff and puff that so often comprises the first couple of courses, here is the meat. There is no where to run, and few excuses left, when it comes to the number of shots faced versus the number of goals scored.

It is in these numbers that we witness an “Albatrossing”.

Yes, there is an element of team here, highlighted in the number of shots faced by Kiprusoff; the outstanding efforts by Flamers in front – three, four less shots faced a night – save a goal every five games.

But that is extraneous; the chart above is more revealing than a cell phone photo from Brett Favre.

Opening the Kimono

Shots per goal are the nasty underbelly of goalie performance, the equivalent of a dog rolling over under the pressure of stern, firm questioning.

It says that Khabibulin is worth 80% of Roloson and half of Thomas.

It says that Kaby is playing below his pay grade, and that, given a couple more years, he is not likely to get better but worse.

It also says that we need to quit including Gerber.

Are we sure?

But Edmonton’s penalty kill of really, really, really sucks, is a common refrain. So, to be clear, here are the splits:

Even Strength Goals per 60 Shots per 60 Shots per Goal
Martin Gerber 1.00 21.00 21.00
Tim Thomas 1.33 25.36 19.10
Roberto Luongo 1.64 22.88 13.94
Dwayne Roloson 1.88 22.92 12.22
Devan Dubnyk 1.94 23.11 11.92
Miikka Kiprusoff 1.86 19.41 10.44
Nikolai Khabibulin 2.36 23.03 9.78
Penalty Kill Goals per 60 Shots per 60 Shots per Goal
Martin Gerber 0.50 4.50 9.00
Tim Thomas 0.54 4.49 8.38
Roberto Luongo 0.56 4.41 7.83
Dwayne Roloson 0.66 4.72 7.19
Devan Dubnyk 0.82 5.87 7.19
Miikka Kiprusoff 0.72 4.62 6.44
Nikolai Khabibulin 1.04 4.44 4.26

Sadly, Kaby is not what he once was.

The party line

There is a belief that a young team needs a strong presence in goal. The prevailing ethos goes along the lines of: With a strong netminder, the mistakes that kids naturally make are mitigated somewhat.

It is base on the premise that a rock in goal protects the psychic fragility of the young players in front of them.

But what merit does that belief possess when your number one gives up a goal per game – and another half goal on special teams – over the league leader?

What you want to happen

Generally speaking, the betting line on the over/under is driven higher by the general public (squares).

The squares like to hold their ticket and hope; it is not cold hearted money that drives them (the sharps), but the thrill of playing the game.

They put their money down based on what they would like to see, and scoring points beats the hell out of a bad, poorly played, low scoring game.

So, generally speaking, they bet the over.

Perversely, unfortunately, and uncomfortably, the same thing happens at the deadline.

The focus tends toward what to add – what prospects/draft choices can we line up (sellers), what holes can we fill for the run (buyers) – not what to dump.

Divestment not acquisition

We certainly are not looking to rush out and get that last piece for the playoffs, not that we would get such returns from tossing Kaby to the curb.

But if we find a desperate team – and they would have to desperate – offering a third rounder in 2015, we take it.

We have to.

For the fans, for the team, but most of all, for the kids.

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NHL to assign Oilers to AHL

Feb 9

Posted by Matt in Guest Article | 3 Comments

The below post is from a guest contributor, Ric, who will be providing a few more looks at the Edmonton Oilers over the next few weeks in a more serious fashion.

Edmonton OilersIn a move that is sure to create controversy, the NHL is expected to announce, perhaps as early as tomorrow, that they have assigned the Edmonton Oilers hockey team to the American Hockey League (AHL).

While probably surprising the half dozen or so remaining fans, the move had to be expected by Oilers’ management after losing the last five games by a combined score of 30-8.

“We felt that it needed to be done, for the integrity and reputation of the league” said a league official familiar with the matter.

It seems that wasn’t the only motivator.

“The demand for the entertainment dollar is such that we just can’t be offering sub-par product on the ice, and that comes straight from our sponsors. Well, them and CBC.”

When asked who might be taking the Oilers spot on the schedule, the official was non-committal, “We are examining our options”, leaving the Phoenix Coyotes wondering about Friday night’s game and AHL teams wondering who will be recalled en mass.

The move, although rare, is not without precedent.

During the ’31-’32 season, the New York Americans were sent down for six games amid allegations of poor sportsmanship after icing the puck 61 times in a game against the Bruins.

Oilers react

“Obviously, this is going to change some things, hotel bookings, business cards, things like that. And I guess we are going to be using a bus a lot more.” was the response from an Oilers spokesman, who requested anonymity, when informed of the pending decision.

“But this could be good for us. We have a young team, maybe some developmental time would be good. Although the season ticket holders might not like it.

“Especially transplanted Leaf fans. You know, there could be some upsides.” he continued.

“We’ll go down there and hone our game, work on the stuff we need to work on, and get better.

We’ll be back in no time at all, you watch.”

Fantasy backlash?

“You’re kidding me, right? I built my whole team around guys the Oilers play most” was a common response on forum boards.

“We can sue, can’t we?” was tied for second with the almost drooling “What fodder are they going to fill the schedule with?”

The final word

Perhaps most fitting is the reaction of a recent AHL call-up:

“What? They can do that? Send the whole team down?”

“But I just got here.”

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