Posts Tagged Columbus Blue Jackets

Fantasy Hockey Friday

Two weeks ago, we brought you an in depth breakdown of team stats around the NHL that could help give a better indication on how your goalie may fare on any given night against any given opponent. This week we turn the tables a bit to analyze more team stats, but this time focus on the impact of these stats for forwards and defenseman.

A good Fantasy Hockey league setup has roster positions and bench positions so that on some nights, when most everyone on your team is playing, you have to make the tough decisions regarding who to bench and who to play. So as a Manager, how do you decide which players to play and which to sit?

Sometimes it comes down to a “hunch” or intuition. Obviously your star players will likely get spots because they are more likely to put points on the board. Players on hot streaks may also get the nod over someone that is slumping. Or you may choose to go by which team any given player is playing against that night.

For instance, if you’re trying to decide between two players, and one is playing against the New York Rangers while the other is playing against the Tampa Bay Lightning, you may want to consider playing your guy against Tampa Bay. Why? Because Tampa Bay averages 3.47 goals against per game while the Rangers average 1.98 goals against per game, meaning there is a greater probability that your player will score against Tampa Bay.

Here is a breakdown of the top five teams in the league with the lowest goals against averages per game:

New York Rangers (1.98)

St. Louis Blues (1.98)

Boston Bruins (2.02)

Los Angeles Kings (2.13)

San Jose Sharks (2.28)

Similarly, here are the worst five teams in the NHL with the highest goals against averages per game:

Tampa Bay Lightning (3.47)

Columbus Blue Jackets (3.22)

Carolina Hurricanes (3.17)

Ottawa Senators (3.08)

Toronto Maple Leafs (3.07)

The Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders also have averages of 3.00 goals against per game or better as well.

You can also get a good idea of how your players will fare by looking at which goalie he will face that night. And these numbers don’t always correlate with the team average.

Boston has a low enough team goals against per game average, but backup netminder Tuukka Rask actually has a lower goals against average than starter Tim Thomas. This means that your player is more likely to score on Thomas than on Rask, but the likelihood that he will score against Boston at all is slim.

Consider the Colorado Avalanche as well. As a whole, the team averages 2.85 goals allowed per game. However, goaltenders Semyon Varlamov and J.S. Giguere have basically split time, but Varlamov’s goals against average is much higher at 3.00 goals against per game than Giguere’s 2.12 goals against per game. So if Varlamov gets the start, play against him with confidence.

The Philadelphia Flyers have a similar issue with Ilya Bryzgalov (3.00) and Sergei Bobrovsky (2.42). Thankfully for Fantasy Managers, Bryzgalov gets the majority of the starts with 30 this season compared to Bobrovsky’s 14.

It doesn’t happen often when you have a full slate of games and have to make the tough choices as a manager on whom to bench and whom to play, but knowing the odds can help you make the right decision in the future. It’s not fool-proof by any means, but it’s a step in the right direction.

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Moving the Nashville Predators to the Eastern Conference makes sense for NHL

With the NHL Players Association’s veto of the proposed realignment plan last Friday, the Board of Governors will now go back to the drawing board in the coming weeks and months to conceive a new schedule that will meet the demans of teams and players alike for the 2013-14 season. However, their options for a new realignment plan remain limited and they may be forced to go with the easiest solution – move one team East.

The original problem came about because the Atlanta Thrashers, an Eastern Conference team, moved to Winnipeg where they should be a Western Conference team. Thus, an easy solution for this problem would be to move one team East to replace Winnipeg. That’s likely the route that the Board of Governors will attempt to take with a new realignment plan. But which team should move East?

The Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets, Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars all expressed interest in switching conferences. Of all of these candidates, Dallas is the western-most team, which makes it unlikely that they will move to the Eastern Conference ahead of teams that are physically located further east than Dallas.

Winnipeg would likely join the Central Division, meaning that Detroit, Nashville or Columbus would have to move to accommodate the Jets. Supposedly Detroit was promised a spot in the East if the opportunity came about. But with such a big fan base spread country-wide, several franchises in the West would be reluctant to lose Detroit and the fans they draw when they come to play. Much to the dismay of Detroit fans who have to endure late-night playoff games against Western Conference foe, Detroit probably will not move East any time soon.

This leaves Nashville and Columbus. If Columbus moves, it would make sense to put them in the Northeast Division or the Atlantic Division where they would be physically closer to their division opponents. But this move would create a chain reaction that displaces teams and causes each division in the East to realign until someone can fill the spot vacated by the Thrashers in the Southeast Division – most likely Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, two teams the NHL won’t want to split up thanks to their long standing, in-state rivalry.

The most likely option then would be to move the Nashville Predators directly into the Southeast Division. The Predators are currently the closest team to the other teams in the Southeast Division, and their travel to Florida to face the Lightning or Panthers wouldn’t be any worse than what Washington currently endures. The move would keep the two-conference, six-division format that the players are used to and would keep the same playoff format. Plus, this would be an easy implementation for the league by basically plugging Nashville into Winnipeg’s old spot. There’s no reason why this couldn’t be approved and implemented next season with the schedule makers basically swapping Nashville for Winnipeg on the schedule.

With a complete, league-wide realignment plan vetoed by the NHLPA, the Board of Governors will probably look to make a simple switch that brings one team East and moves Winnipeg West where they ought to be. In terms of travel and location, moving Nashville into the Southeast Division of the Eastern Conference makes the most sense.

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NHL realignment talks on tap for Governors meeting next week

With the NHL Board of Governors meeting next week in Pebble Beach, California, fans may finally get their long-awaited answer as to how the league plans to deal with realignment next season after the Atlanta Thrashers moved to Winnipeg this past summer, throwing the league out of whack as Winnipeg is playing in Atlanta’s Eastern Conference spot but should rightfully be a Western Conference team.

It appears as if there are two front-running suggestions right now. The first involves an even swap where Detroit would move to the East and Winnipeg to the West. This would be the simplest move for the NHL to make, which means it will never happen.

The other suggestion involves a complete realignment that shifts away from the two-conference, six-division standard and instead implements a four-division league where two of the divisions have seven teams and the other two have eight. If this idea is agreed upon, it’s likely that the Board of Governors will also alter the schedule so that each team plays every other team at home and on the road at least once during the regular season.

As a hockey fan, I’m more intrigued by the complete reformation. It would certainly be more fun from a fan’s point of view to play every team at home at least once. That way, fans all over can see Steve Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin and countless others at their home arena once every season. Plus, this proposal would also include two rounds of divisional playoffs – something that should increase the bad blood between division rivals. If this strategy could produce rivalry playoff matchups even remotely to the level of Detroit-Colorado in the late 1990’s, I’m all for it.

The problem is that two-thirds of the Board of Governors has to approve whatever method they propose. That’s probably the most likely reason why they will not adopt a simply strategy where Detroit moves to the East and Winnipeg to the West. Too many Western Conference general managers like having Detroit come to their arena twice a season to help draw in fans. Add in the fact that each team will also play host to Crosby, Ovechkin and Stamkos and you’re looking at a big increase in profits during those games.

The other reason why I believe they will adopt a complete restructuring involves the Phoenix Coyotes. The city of Glendale, where the Coyotes’ arena resides, has stated they will not pay for the Coyotes any longer. Unless there is a buyer in place by the end of this season, the Coyotes will likely be on the move. If the general managers agree to a straight Detroit-for-Winnipeg swap, they could be in the exact same position next season if Phoenix moves East (although I hear Las Vegas and Washington are possible destinations if Phoenix moves).

For the time being, however, I am still holding out hope that the league will adopt my strategy that drops two teams completely and moves to four, seven-team divisions. Sorry Phoenix and Columbus, you are the weakest links. Goodbye.

 

 

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Did Jeff Carter ask for a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets?

The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a horrendous start with a 4-13-2 record – good enough for last place in the Western Conference. This is certainly not what Columbus had in mind after spending a ton of money to lure defenseman James Wisniewski to Columbus and trading for center Jeff Carter. Well, now rumor mongers are suggesting that Columbus may be looking to flip an underachieving Carter or that Carter himself has asked for a trade out of Columbus.

Carter himself has been a disappointment thus far with only one goal and three assists, but Carter has also missed half of the season with injuries making it difficult for him to establish himself with the team. Still, rumors are lingering that Carter isn’t happy playing in Columbus and has asked management for a trade, which harks back to over the summer when Carter was initially traded and rumors swirled after he failed to address the media that he was unhappy with the trade and didn’t want to play for Columbus.

Teams rumored to be interested include the Boston Bruins, who would love to have another goal scorer added to their lineup, the Montreal Canadiens and the LA Kings. Yes, the Kings may be in the running with Mike Richards rumored to be leading the charge to have LA trade for his friend and former teammate.

Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson, Jeff Carter’s agent Rick Curran and Carter himself have all denied that he has requested a trade, but that certainly won’t stop speculation around the web that Carter wants out.

Carter did comment, however, that he is unhappy with his team’s performance thus far.

“I don’t think anybody is happy (in the dressing room) right now,” Carter said. “If anybody is happy in this room, they shouldn’t be. We’ve won (four) games.”

Personally, I have to call the bluff on this rumor. While the initial trade to send Carter out of Philadelphia caught everyone by surprise, it’s highly unlikely that Carter will be passed on by the Blue Jackets after only nine games. Injuries have hindered his ability to get comfortable on the ice with his teammates, thus causing his performance to suffer.

Besides, the Blue Jackets are more likely to fire their head coach, Scott Arniel, before they make any significant lineup changes. The team gave up a lot in order to acquire Carter. While he makes an easy scapegoat out of the gate because the team expects so much from him, it’s highly unlikely that they are willing to give up on Carter after so little time.

 

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2011-12 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

Blue Jackets GM Scott Howson (L) is banking the success of the team on the signing of Jeff Carter (R).

Offseason Losses: Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov, Scottie Upshall, Mathieu Garon, Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore, Sami Lepisto

Offseason Additions: Jeff Carter, Vinny Prospal, James Wisniewski, Radek Martinek

Last Season Ranking: 13th in the West

Offense: Jeff Carter coming to Columbus will give the Blue Jackets their first 1-2 offensive punch in franchise history Carter will join Rick Nash and R.J. Umberger on the top line. This will be the primary offense and special teams line as there isn’t much depth beyond the top six. With Carter and Nash, only players with the names of Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Iginla and Heatley have scored more goals than Carter and Nash over the last four seasons. Pretty impressive to have two of the top six goal scorers during that span are on the same line playing together. They will be worth a look in the early rounds of your fantasy draft if you aren’t too concerned about plus-minus because of whom they have playing behind them.

19-year-old top prospect Ryan Johansen is expected to begin the season centering the third line, but could get bumped up to the second line should he perform well and Antoine Vermette struggle. Various preseason lines have different players playing different positions and on different lines, but the combination of Vermette, Kristian Huselius, Antoine Vermette and newcomer Vinny Prospal to compete on the second and third lines. They have to find a way to succeed and qualify for the playoffs in the difficult Central division with a warming seat underneath GM Scott Howson, and head coach Scott Arniel. Not to mention Nationwide Arena has had more empty seats than filled ones in the last couple seasons since making the playoffs in 2009. Last year they were 27th of 30 in attendance with an average attendance of 13,658.

Defense: The best signing they made this off-season besides bringing in Carter was signing James Wisniewski. He is a young, offensive-minded blue liner who will see time on the first power play unit to create offensive and scoring for a squad that was second from last on the power play last season. If they want to make the playoffs, a 14 percent success rate won’t cut it. They also signed Radek Martinek who didn’t do a whole lot on Long Island last season. Look for 20-year-old David Savard to contend for the third defensive pairing coming out of training camp. If you compare his stats with Springfield of the AHL last season to the rest of the team, he was second behind Wisniewski in goals and points.

Goaltending: With Mathieu Garon departing for Tampa Bay, it is all on the shoulders of Steve Mason. He won 33 games in 2009 before crashing back to Earth in 2010. He played better in 2011 and it could give him confidence going into this season. It could fall in a line of young goalies such as Carey Price and Cam Ward who struggled while they were young before coming around and being a solid No. 1 goalie after a few years of experience.

The Jackets left fans scratching their head when they not only handed Mason the starting job again, but decided against signing a proven backup and will hand the No. 2 reins to Mark Dekanich. They signed him to a 1-way contract despite having 50 minutes of NHL experience under his belt. It is a huge risk to take especially for a team that needs to win to keep the fan base interested.

Playoff Prediction: In the playoffs, but just barely. It all rides on the play of Mason in goal. They did enough up front with the addition of Carter and Prospal and bringing in Wisniewski to anchor the blue line. While Detroit and Chicago are clearly better than them in the division, they will have to contend with Nashville to finish third in the division and to fight for the last playoff spot.

 

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Free Agency Opening Day Recap

Yesterday was one of the first day of NHL free agency. Several teams made a splash, none bigger than the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers not only win the Jaromir Jagr sweepstakes, but they also acquired defenseman Andreas Lilja and forward Maxime Talbot. Because of those moves, they had to part ways with Ville Leino, Sean O’Donnell, and Daniel Carcillo. Goalie Brian Boucher was the odd-man out when the team signed Illya Bryzgalov last week. Boucher signed with Carolina. Kris Versteeg was also traded to Florida after a short 27-game stint in the black & orange.

Joel Ward made $1.5 million in Nashville in 2010-11. He will average double that amount in Washington over the next four years.

In addition to the Flyers, the Washington Capitals overhauled their roster today as they parted ways with forwards Andrew Joudrey, Marco Sturm, and Boyd Gordon and upgraded with Joel Ward and defenseman Roman Hamerlik. Ward previously played with Nashville where he scored 13 points in 12 playoff games in 2011. He scored big with a four-year, $12 million deal. Hamerlik had 31 assists on the blue line in Montreal last season, and landed a two-year, $7 million contract in the District.

Two teams also added multiple goalies, with those being Columbus (Mark Dekanich and Curtis Sanford) and Colorado (J.S. Giguere and Semyon Varlomov). Other notable backstops that changed teams include Mike Smith (Phoenix), Brian Elliott (St. Louis), Jose Theodore (Florida), Mathieu Garon (Tampa Bay), and Peter Budaj (Montreal).

Coming off the best season of his career, 27-year-old James Wisniewski returns to the Central division after spending last season with Montreal and the New York Islanders. He signed a six-year, $33 million contract with Columbus after the Blue Jackets traded for his rights (similiar to Chrisian Ehrhoff earlier this week) from the Canadiens. The Habs traded his negotiating rights for a seventh-round draft pick in 2012 on Wednesday, but with the condition that if Wisniewski signs with Columbus the compensation would increase to a fifth-round pick.

Of teams in the Central, the Blackhawks made the most moves, as they signed O’Donnell and Carcillo from the Flyers to one-season deals. They also signed veterans Andrew Brunette and Jamal Mayers to one-year contracts as well. Brunette came from Minnesota where he scores 18 goals and recorded 28 assists. The team also signed 32-year-old Brett McLean, who spent the last two seasons in the Swiss League.

Detroit only added one player in forward Mike Commodore from down Columbus. The bizarre angle of this story is that Commodore and Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock were previously together when Babcock coached Anaheim’s AHL affiliate and had Commodore as a player. Back in ’09, Commodore, 31, publicly accused Babcock of having being an obstacle in Commodore’s career. Commodore told the Detroit Free Press Friday he spoke with Detroit’s bench boss and the issue is now currently water under the bridge.

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NHL Stanley Cup Finals facts and other fun trivia

The Stanley Cup playoffs are a long, exhausting grind. The process takes nearly two months to complete with teams playing every other night in hard-fought, physical battles where players are tested to the extreme both mentally and physically. It’s no wonder that some say the Stanley Cup is the toughest trophy to win in professional sports. With the Stanley Cup Finals set to begin tonight in Vancouver, here are some interesting facts about past Stanley Cup winners and losers – including some history about this year’s combatants.

  •  The Boston Bruins, one of the Original Six teams, have one of the worst Stanley Cup track records with a dismal .294 winning percentage. In 17 previous appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Bruins have won five times with their last victory coming in 1972. This will be the team’s sixth Stanley Cup Finals appearance since their last victory.  
  • The Vancouver Canucks have never won the Stanley Cup. The team made two previous appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals since joining the NHL in 1970 – once in 1982 and the second time in 1994.
  • Only two teams currently in the NHL have never lost in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Colorado Avalanche made two appearances, winning the Stanley Cup in both 1996 and 2001, while the Tampa Bay Lightning won their only appearance in the Finals in 2004. 
  • Six teams have never made an appearance in the Finals: the Columbus Blue Jackets (nine seasons), Minnesota Wild (nine seasons), Atlanta Thrashers (10 seasons), Nashville Predators (11 seasons), San Jose Sharks (18 seasons) and Phoenix Coyotes (13 seasons, and 17 seasons as the Winnipeg Jets).
  • In addition to those teams, another seven teams have appeared in the Finals but never won the Stanley Cup: the Vancouver Canucks (two appearances), St. Louis Blues (three appearances), Buffalo Sabres (two appearances), Florida Panthers (one appearance), Los Angeles Kings (one appearance), Ottawa Senators (one appearance) and the Washington Capitals (one appearance).
  • The Montreal Canadiens are the most decorated team in the NHL with an incredible 24 Stanley Cup championships in 34 appearances. The last time the team won the Stanley Cup was in 1993, which was also their last appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals as well.
  • Henri “The Rocket” Richard has won the most Stanley Cups as a player with 11.
  • Mark Messier is the only player to captain two different teams to a Stanley Cup championship. He captained both the Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers to championships.  

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NHL playoffs already in sight at quarter-season mark

By the end of November when the U.S. Thanksgiving arrives, most teams have had time to mesh, time to get back into the grind of the long NHL season and teams and players have had ample time to learn new systems of play. By the end of November, every team in the NHL has played at least 20 games – something that coaches and players alike will tell you is a good point of reference for how a team will do in the long run of the season. In fact, with only one quarter of the NHL season gone, statistics show that most playoff spots have already been decided and if your team is currently outside looking in, you might be in for a long summer next year.

According to an analysis done by the Toronto Star that utilized NHL statistics dating back to 1993, 77.5 percent of the teams that hold a playoff spot at the U.S. Thanksgiving end up making the playoffs at the end of the season. Only 22.5 percent of the teams outside looking in at Thanksgiving make it back into the playoff fold.

The news gets worse for fans of teams like the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers. The analysis also found that 84 percent of the teams that had 17 points or fewer at the Thanksgiving holiday failed to make the postseason. Meanwhile, 89 percent of the teams that had 28 or more points at the same point in time made the playoffs. This statistic bodes well for teams like Columbus, Pittsburgh, Montreal, Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit.

Former NHL player Brendan Shanahan, who currently serves as the vice-president of hockey and business development for the NHL, broke down the stats and commented on the bleak outlook for teams currently outside the playoff picture.

“If you go into a third period leading the game, more often than not, you win that game,” said Shanahan.

But if you don’t have the lead, “it doesn’t mean you’re out of it. All you’re thinking about is winning. You’re not thinking about statistics. You’ve got to focus on that 22.5 per cent, that it can be me.”

With over 50 games still remaining in the regular season, there is still a lot of wiggle room for bubble teams to move in and out of contention before playoffs begin. In fact, only four points currently separate the 12th place Minnesota Wild from the 4th place Columbus Blue Jackets in the Western Conference.

“The teams that have gotten off to a good start are rewarded in some sense, with improving their odds,” said Shanahan. “It doesn’t mean the door is closed, it doesn’t mean they can rest, and it doesn’t mean the teams behind them are out.”

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Tuesday’s Take: Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks StinkThe Chicago Blackhawks had a remarkable season last year winning the Stanley Cup. A team that came out of nowhere to take it all. This year though, despite being early, seems to be a little different.

The Blackhawks at the surface are off to a decent start. They currently sit in 5th place among the Western Conference and 3rd in the Central Division. Dig a little deeper though and you start to see the team for what they are. The Blackhawks have played an average of 4 more games than the competition within the West. There are 4 teams that are within 2 points of catching them, and those teams have 4 games in hand. One of those teams are the Columbus Blue Jackets, 7-3-0 in their last ten and a division opponent.

The point being made is the Blackhawks, despite being in 5th place currently, are a struggling team. They most likely will be leap frogged down to 10th or 11th spot after the other teams catch up. At what cost do the general managers wish to go for the Cup? General manager Stan Bowman was praised last year for taking the team all the way. How will the fans treat him this year if the returning Stanley Cup Champions cannot even make the playoffs?

The season is young, I know this, I just am glad I am not a Blackhawks fan. With the Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks and the Colorado Avalanche still yet to be in a playoff spot,  I do not think the Blackhawks will make it to the playoffs this season. As a fan, I would be disappointed if my GM went for a one trick pony instead of a constant contender each year.

How would you feel if your team won the Cup then the next year did not make the playoffs?

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Hockey World Blog Season Previews 2010: Columbus Blue Jackets

Key Offseason Losses:Manny Malhotra, Michael Peca

Key Offseason Additions:Nate Guenin, Ethan Moreau, Kyle Wilson, Nikita Filatov

Last Season Ranking: 14th, West

Offense:It’s all about Rich Nash for the Blue Jackets. One of the most talented players in the league, he needs some help in order to succeed in Columbus. He had help when they made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history two years ago, but that’s slowly going further out the rear-view mirror. There’s signs of potential offensive talent surrounded around him this time around. Despite struggling last season, Antoine Vermette is coming off his career-best season when he scored 27 goals and 65 points. They have the potential to have a functional top six outside of Nash and Vermette, with R.J. Umberger playing on the right side of the top line and the second line of Kristian Huselius, Derick Brassard, and Jakub Voracek. If Brassard can get atleast 50 points (he had 36 last season), then the Blue Jackets finally will have depth at forward. Also look for additions Nikita Filatov and Ethan Moreau to provide depth in the third-fourth lines. The X-factor will be Chris Clark. Clark was captain of the Capitals when he was traded to the Blue Jackets last season. He helps provide veteran leadership in the locker room despite Nash wearing the C. The big question for him is, was he the benefit of playing on a good team (15 pts in 38 games in Washington, and 5 pts in 36 games with Columbus) or does he have the skill set to contribute on a less talented team with a full season with them?

 Defense:This is a defensive unit that doesn’t move the puck very well. They will get some points from time to time, but just about all of them are stay-at-home defenders. Anton Stralman was the top scoring defenseman with 34 points last season, but the downside to him and just about the rest of the team is the poor +/- rating. Stralman and Brassard had a team-worse -17 rating last season. Only third line defenseman Kris Russell had a plus-rating out of the top six defenseman and he only had a +3 rating in 70 games. Look for the team to make trades during the season to get someone who can possess and move the puck to help in the transition game.

Which Steve Mason will show up this season? If he's more like the one his rookie season, expect Columbus to be better than they were last season.

Which Steve Mason will show up this season? If he's more like the one his rookie season, expect Columbus to be better than they were last season.

Goaltending:There isn’t a player whose stock dropped further and faster last season than Steve Mason. Mason won the Calder Tophy and was a candidate for the Vezina Award in 2009 when he led Columbus to the playoffs. Last season, he was one of the worse goalies in the league. Opponents eventually figured him out and they lit the lamp a lot as he had a 3.04 GAA last season. He can only help the team if he can be half or two-thirds of the goalie he was his rookie season. He will carry majority of the playing load, and if he struggles they have one of the more reliable backups in the league in Mathieu Garon. Expect Mason to enter this season with better conditioning, focus and a sense of humility after falling back to Earth last season. Should he rebound and play better in goal, you heard it here first.

Season Outlook:It’s hard expecting this team to make the playoffs because they play in arguably the hardest division in the league. The division winner has advanced to the Western Conference Finals each of the last four seasons, producing two Stanley Cup champions in the process. With everyone else in the division getting better and the Blue Jackets being one of the lesser-spending teams in the league, the deck is stacked against them to begin with. They have the talent up front and in goal to compete, but the defense is what will doom them. Expect them to finish last in the division and maybe even the conference.

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