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Fantasy Hockey Friday

The Hot List provides a small sampling of players putting up big numbers over the last week who are flying under the radar in Fantasy Hockey leagues and could be worth a look if you need an extra boost in your stat categories.

The Hot List:

Mike Fisher (forward): Over the past two weeks, Mike Fisher posted six goals, including three game winners, and one assist. January was a solid month for Fisher who posted seven goals and eight assists in 13 games while Nashville won an incredible 11 out of a possible 13 games in January.  Keep an eye on Fisher to see if he keeps up this pace in the second half.

Mikhail Grabovski (forward): Owned in 64 percent of Yahoo Fantasy Hockey Leagues, Grabovski posted four goals and six assists and was a plus-five over the past two weeks with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Grabovksi now has 36 points in 45 games this season.

Clarke MacArthur (forward): Another Maple Leaf on the list, MacArthur tallied four goals and notched two assists over the last two weeks on only nine shots on goal. However, MacArthur seems to have fallen back to Earth after a 62 point outbreak last season and will likely hit the 50-point plateau at best this year.

Teddy Purcell (forward): Purcell will likely fall short of his career best of 51 points from last season, but he could top the 20 goal mark for the first time in his career. His play has been streaky at best, but he has six points in his last six games and appears to be shooting the puck more with 18 shots on goal over the same time span. When forwards shoot the puck, good things happen.

Matheiu Garon (goalie): Brought in as a backup netminder in the offseason, Garon appears to be slowly stealing the starting role from Dwayne Roloson. With a 2-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets last night, Garon is now the winner of four of his last five starts.

 

 

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Fantasy Hockey Friday: NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft Recap

With a shortened Fantasy Hockey week thanks to the NHL All-Star Weekend, what better topic to discuss on Fantasy Hockey Friday than the NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft that took place last night?

The second annual NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft had a little bit of everything, from surprise picks to cheers and jeers from the home crowd in Ottawa, to rivalries that can’t yet be put aside and a first-hand look at players sitting back, enjoying themselves and the game they love.

The night started off with a great show of sportmanship by Daniel Alfredsson, the homewtown captain of the Ottawa Senators and one of the All-Star Game captains, when he yielded to Zdeno Chara, captain for the “visiting” team, and allowed him to call the toss of the puck because he is the defending Stanley Cup Champion. As it turned out, Chara called correctly and received the first overall pick with co-captain Joffrey Lupul by his side.

NHL All Star Draft Pavel Datsyuk Zdeno Chara

Zdeno Chara poses for pictures with Pavel Datsyuk, the #1 overall pick in the NHL All Star Draft

Most fans figured Evgeni Malkin, who currently leads the league in points, or Claude Giroux, a close second behind Malkin, would be taken first overall. Instead, Chara decided to go a different route and picked Pavel Datsyuk, a highly skilled puck handler and someone Chara thinks “plays the game the right way.” Datsyuk should have no problem setting up some of the goal scorers that Chara later picked, including Malkin, Gaborik, Kane, Hossa, Perry and Iginla.

Team bonds and friendships won out afterward as Alfredsson and his co-captain Henrik Lundqvist picked young defenseman Erik Karlsson, a teammate of Alfredsson’s in Ottawa. In the second round, Chara followed suite and grabbed Tim Thomas, his teammate in Boston, while Alfredsson picked Jason Spezza, another Ottawa teammate. With that pick, Spezza became $20 poorer when it was later revealed that he had bet Malkin $20 that Malkin would be picked before him.

By the end of the night, Chara had all of the Boston players while Alfredsson had all of the Ottawa Senators.

This year’s Mr. Irrelevant, the last picked player in the draft, came down to two young players who didn’t share ties with either of the captains or co-captains. Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars and Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks were the last two remaining on the stage with Chara left to pick his last player and determine who would become the last pick of the draft and this year’s Mr. Irrelevant – a spot that Phil Kessel of the Toronto Maple Leafs found himself in last season.

Again, Chara showed class on stage and picked Benn over Couture because, as Chara prefaced before the pick, Benn deserved to not be last after having emergency appendectomy surgery recently and still showed up to play this weekend. The All-Star Game on Sunday will be Benn’s first game back after the surgery in any capacity.

Don’t feel too bad for Couture, though. Being last picked in the NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft has its merits as Couture walked away with a free car.

Here are a few more thoughts and notes about the draft last night:

  • Turns out, some rivalries are a bit tougher to put aside than others. Daniel Sedin went to Team Alfredsson in the 9th round. Daniel’s brother Henrik sat on the board until Round 13, where he was also drafted by Team Alfredsson. Chara had several opportunities to split up the brothers but opted not to. Evidently Chara has a long memory and the Boston Bruins defenseman didn’t want anything to do with any of the Vancouver Cancucks players. The remaining Canuck, Alexander Edler, also went to Team Alfredsson.
  • The Ottawa Senators fans in attendance made their disdain for the Toronto Maple Leafs well know. Any time Joffrey Lupul attempted to make a selection for Team Chara, he was met with a loud chorus of boos and jeers. In fact, it actually got quite annoying to watch as a spectator as the jeers continued even into the late rounds of the draft. Lupul shrugged it off and acted like he didn’t mind, but at times he seemed annoyed with the fans in the crowd as well.
  • Another car for the last man picked? Come on NHL, these are guys that get stitched up in the locker room in between periods and then come back out on the ice to finish a game. I think they can handle being the last picked just fine without giving them a car to help soften the blow to their ego. I think a donation to the player’s favorite charity would be more than enough.
  • Please stop interviewing Phil Kessel. Really, just skip over him and don’t let him near a mic. His responses were just a lot of, “Oh, I don’t know,” and, “It doesn’t matter.” Tyler Seguin is on thin ice for similar responses as well.
  •  Best zing of the night goes to Jeremy Roenick for his Marian Gaborik comment after the draft was over. After being selected by Team Chara, Gaborik walked halfway across the stage toward Team Alfredsson’s side. This brought a round of laughter from the crowd and the players in attendance. Roenick later commented that “it’s a good thing New York signed Brad Richards so he can at least point Gaborik toward the right net.”
  • The NHL’s promotion of social media was very apparant last night – and it made for interesting commentary. Having the players live Tweet the event and then reading them on air was a really cool social media maneuver that offered inside access for fans. But the NHL needs to do one thing from here on out – get Alyonka Larionov in front of the camera whenever, wherever and as often as possible. Enough said.
  • Looking over each roster, I’ve gotta give the advantage to Team Chara. I think they assembled a team more geared toward offensive production and, let’s face it, the All-Star Game is all about offense. But Team Alfredsson edges out Team Chara in goaltending, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out on Sunday.

 

 

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Fantasy Hockey Friday

Two weeks ago, we brought you an in depth breakdown of team stats around the NHL that could help give a better indication on how your goalie may fare on any given night against any given opponent. This week we turn the tables a bit to analyze more team stats, but this time focus on the impact of these stats for forwards and defenseman.

A good Fantasy Hockey league setup has roster positions and bench positions so that on some nights, when most everyone on your team is playing, you have to make the tough decisions regarding who to bench and who to play. So as a Manager, how do you decide which players to play and which to sit?

Sometimes it comes down to a “hunch” or intuition. Obviously your star players will likely get spots because they are more likely to put points on the board. Players on hot streaks may also get the nod over someone that is slumping. Or you may choose to go by which team any given player is playing against that night.

For instance, if you’re trying to decide between two players, and one is playing against the New York Rangers while the other is playing against the Tampa Bay Lightning, you may want to consider playing your guy against Tampa Bay. Why? Because Tampa Bay averages 3.47 goals against per game while the Rangers average 1.98 goals against per game, meaning there is a greater probability that your player will score against Tampa Bay.

Here is a breakdown of the top five teams in the league with the lowest goals against averages per game:

New York Rangers (1.98)

St. Louis Blues (1.98)

Boston Bruins (2.02)

Los Angeles Kings (2.13)

San Jose Sharks (2.28)

Similarly, here are the worst five teams in the NHL with the highest goals against averages per game:

Tampa Bay Lightning (3.47)

Columbus Blue Jackets (3.22)

Carolina Hurricanes (3.17)

Ottawa Senators (3.08)

Toronto Maple Leafs (3.07)

The Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders also have averages of 3.00 goals against per game or better as well.

You can also get a good idea of how your players will fare by looking at which goalie he will face that night. And these numbers don’t always correlate with the team average.

Boston has a low enough team goals against per game average, but backup netminder Tuukka Rask actually has a lower goals against average than starter Tim Thomas. This means that your player is more likely to score on Thomas than on Rask, but the likelihood that he will score against Boston at all is slim.

Consider the Colorado Avalanche as well. As a whole, the team averages 2.85 goals allowed per game. However, goaltenders Semyon Varlamov and J.S. Giguere have basically split time, but Varlamov’s goals against average is much higher at 3.00 goals against per game than Giguere’s 2.12 goals against per game. So if Varlamov gets the start, play against him with confidence.

The Philadelphia Flyers have a similar issue with Ilya Bryzgalov (3.00) and Sergei Bobrovsky (2.42). Thankfully for Fantasy Managers, Bryzgalov gets the majority of the starts with 30 this season compared to Bobrovsky’s 14.

It doesn’t happen often when you have a full slate of games and have to make the tough choices as a manager on whom to bench and whom to play, but knowing the odds can help you make the right decision in the future. It’s not fool-proof by any means, but it’s a step in the right direction.

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Carolina Hurricanes’ Jeff Skinner Returns

AP Photo/Richard Lipski

Carolina Hurricanes’ fans gave a collective sigh of relief last night as young forward Jeff Skinner has returned. Skinner, who has missed 16 games, was out because of a concussion.

The NHL continues its ongoing effort to curb head-shots, ultimately trying to remove concussions from the game. The charge to change the game for the better began last season as superstar Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins suffered a concussion, sidelining him for the last quarter of last season and out for the majority of this season.

Skinner’s return was a positive boost to the lineup of the Hurricanes as he continued where he left off. Playing two games so far, Skinner averaged 17:39 of ice time and picked up an assist in his second game. In time he will jump back up to his nearly 19 minutes a game norm.

Although Skinner’s return is a positive for the Hurricanes, the harsh reality is the team is in last place of the Eastern Conference. Last season the Hurricanes fell two points short of 8th place for the playoffs. This season the team will not make the playoffs even if a miracle happens. Very sad considering the team has such talent in Captain Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner, Joni Pitkanen and netminder Cam Ward. Major overhaul is in store for the team in the off-season, maybe even come trade deadline. From a fantasy perspective though, Skinner will still put up points to help out your team.

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Fantasy Hockey Friday: The Hot List

The Hot List provides a small sampling of players putting up big numbers over the last week who are flying under the radar in Fantasy Hockey leagues and could be worth a look if you need an extra boost in your stat categories.

The Hot List:

Saku Koivu (forward): Someone on the Anaheim roster needs to score, and evidently it’s Koivu’s turn. Four goals and three assists over the last seven days including a hat trick against Dallas earlier this week. Koivu missed a big chunk of December thanks to injury, but has tallied 11 points in his last five games.

Kyle Turris (forward): The Ottawa Senators have been a big surprise this season, and the addition of Turris raised some eyebrows after he underachieved for several seasons with the Phoenix Coyotes. Since joining the Sens, however, Turris has posted eight points in 11 games – including seven assists. Turris appears to be the number two center the Sens have been coveting.

Adam Henrique (forward): Hard to believe this rookie is still available in 62 percent of Yahoo Fantasy Hockey leagues. Three goals and three assists over the last seven days, including two shorthanded goals and 12 shots on goal. Henrique now has 34 points in 40 games and is making a strong case for rookie of the year.

Marcel Goc (forward): Goc hasn’t done much this season, but he has four points in his last three games – including a power play goal against the Canucks earlier this week. Take his recent success with a grain of salt, however, as Goc had only two points in 17 games in October and November.

Francois Beauchemin (defense): Three assists in the last week, but was a plus-6 and also contributed 18 penalty minutes. If you need defensive depth, or help in the PIM category, Beauchemin might be worth a look.

Jonas Gustavsson (goalie): Four straight wins and two shutouts in the past week. Could “The Monster” finally be showing his true potential?

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Fantasy Friday: Goalie Stats

Today we are going to forgo The Hot List (although we still recommend looking into Daniel Alfredsson if you haven’t already) and will instead focus on more team-oriented stats and how they relate to goalies. Goalie stats are some of the hardest to predict in Fantasy Hockey. Now, the specifics may change from league to league, but overall goalies are usually rewarded for wins and punished for allowing goals. By looking at some of the overall team stats, managers may be able to better formulate a plan of attack and predict how their goalie may do on any given night.

Most leagues will punish goals allowed in some capacity. If you’re league does, then you may want to know which teams are more likely to score on any given night.

Eight teams in the league currently score, on average, three or more goals per game. If you’re goalie is facing one of those teams, you can pretty much expect at least three goals to slip through. Those eight teams are:

Boston (3.65)

Philadelphia (3.42)

Detroit (3.26)

Vancouver (3.24)

Chicago (3.20)

Toronto (3.15)

Pittsburgh (3.10)

Ottawa (3.0)

Leagues will also reward or punish goalies based on the number of shots faced. This may be a simple ‘shots faced’ stat, or represent itself in the form of save percentage or goals against average. These five teams lead the league in shots per game:

San Jose (34.8)

Pittsburgh (33.7)

Detroit (33.1)

Chicago (32.7)

Boston (32.5)

You’ll notice that three of the teams on the shots per game list are also on the goals scored per game list. Before starting your goalie against any of those teams, you may want to determine if you will gain more points by facing more shots or lose more points by letting in more goals.

One of the most popular goalie stats in Fantasy Hockey is wins. And, depending on how your league’s point system is set up, goalie wins can make or break your week in head-to-head matchups. So it’s important to know who your goalie is most likely to beat. These next five teams have the most losses in the NHL:

Columbus (24)

Anaheim (22)

Edmonton (21)

Carolina (21)

Calgary (19)

On the other side, these five teams lead the league in wins:

Boston (26)

NY Rangers (25)

Vancouver (25)

Detroit (25)

Chicago (24)

Taking all of these stats into consideration, the four teams that you will likely want to avoid playing your goalie against are the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawk, Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings. Not only are they likely to beat you, but they are likely to score three or more goals on you as well.

All of these stats are available on NHL.com and can be useful tools when trying to decide whether to play your goalie against a given opponent. Goalie stats are some of the toughest to predict, but having knowledge of these stats can help you determine the best course of action when it comes to goalie plays.

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Fantasy Friday

The Hot List:

Evander Kane (forward): Kane has had a huge week with three goals, one assist and 11 shots on goal. Kane appears to have found his groove and is poised to easily surpass his career point totals and could top out at the 60-point mark. Take a second look at the Winnipeg forward if you need extra scoring help.

Jason Arnott (forward): Two goals and two assists over the past seven days with points in seven of his last 10 games. He now has 20 points in 34 games and will easily surpass his points total from last season. The Blues are trending upward and so is Arnott.

Tyler Kennedy (forward): Kennedy seems to be on a hot streak in the second half of December with seven points in his last five games. He scored a career-high 45 points last season and will likely settle around the 50-point mark long term this year.

Mikko Koivu (forward): Although sidelined for a few games in mid-December, Koivu has 19 points in his last 15 games played – including a streak of points in nine straight contests. He’s owned in 76 percent of Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues. If he’s available in yours, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be on your roster.

The Cold List:

Sergei Gonchar (defenseman): Gonchar has cooled off considerably with only three points in the last 30 days, and none on the power play.

Vinny Prospal (forward): Only one point in his last five games. However, Prospal has 13 shots on goal during that same span, so it’s not for lack of effort.

Between the Pipes:

The Chicago Blackhawks are set on riding the hot hand this season, and the current flavor of the week is Corey Crawford. Winner of two-of-his-past-three, Crawford has allows just four goals on 97 shots in those three games. However, backup netminder Ray Emery had been the winner of five straight before suffering a 3-2 loss against Pittsburgh last week that relinquished his starting duties. Eventually the Blackhawks will need to choose a starter to prepare for a long playoff run. Until then, expect the back and forth to continue.

Crosby Update:

The Penguins finally released an update concerning superstar center Sidney Crosby – and the outlook isn’t good. After exploding for 12 points in eight games after initially returning from a concussion, the team confirmed that Crosby is again sidelined indefinitely with concussion-like symptoms. However, high ranking Penguins officials have privately stated that they do not believe his symptoms are as bad this time around and are confident that he will play again this season. Until then, toss Crosby on the IR and wait patiently for his return.

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Fantasy Friday

The Hot List:

Daniel Alfredsson (forward): Two goals and five assists along with a plus-five over the last week. Alfredsson now has 25 points in 29 games for the Senators and is tied for third on the team in points. Looks like the captains still got it.

Olli Jokinen (forward): Owned in 51 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues, Jokinen now leads the Flames in points with 29 in 32 games – including two goals and four assists to go along with 12 shots on goal over the past seven days. Jokinen has 13 points in his past 10 games. If he is available in your league, grab him while he’s hot.

Blake Wheeler (forward): Wheeler appears to be on pace to post personal best stats in points and assists this season with the Winnipeg Jets. Wheeler has five points in his last five games. However, Wheeler only has five goals total this year, so don’t expect him to light the lamp often if you pick him up.  

Matt Niskanen (defense): Niskanen tallied one goal and four assists over the last seven days, but the important stat to pay attention to is that he had that goal and three of his assists on the power play. With Penguins defenseman Kris Letang on the shelf thanks to concussions symptoms, Niskanen should get more power play time for the Penguins.

Evgeni Nabokov (goal): His inclusion on this list is mainly due to the lack of options that the Islanders currently have in goal. Supposed starter Rick DiPietro is injured (go figure) and backup Al Montoya is out with a concussion. Nabokov desires to play with a contender and will be a free agent at the end of the season. If he still has the goods, now is the time to showcase and try to force a trade to a contender later in the season. Keep an eye on his performance level while the Islanders are hit with the injury bug between the pipes.

 

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Fantasy Friday

The Hotlist:

Wayne Simmonds (forward): Three goals and one assist over the last seven days. With injuries to Claude Giroux and Brayden Schenn, Simmonds will see more ice time and be counted on for increased production. Owned in a meager 17 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Bryan Little (forward): Three goals over the last seven days on 12 shots on goal. Little has 20 points in 31 games for the Jets, including four goals in his past five games.

Todd Bertuzzi (forward): Bertuzzi has one goal and three assists in the past seven days. More importantly, he plays on the top line with the red-hot Pavel Datsyuk. He has been a consistent 40-point scorer with Detroit, but he may pay short-term dividends if you grab him while he’s hot.

Matt Carle (defense): One goal, five assists and a plus-four over the last seven days. It was just announced that Chris Pronger will be out for the season thanks to concussion symptoms. Expect Carle to help fill the void on the blue line.

Michael Del Zotto (defense): Owned in only 40 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues, Del Zotto posted four points over the past seven days and was plus-five while rifling off 11 shots and blocking 10. Del Zotto has nine points total over the last 10 games.

Between the Pipes:

It appears as if Luongo has reclaimed the number one spot in Vancouver, but Cory Schneider remains a viable threat for wins, goals against and save percentage when he plays. The Canucks are winners of seven of their last 10 games.

However, another goalie controversy appears to be brewing in Chicago. Ray Emery is winner of three straight games and will get his fourth consecutive start against the Ducks tonight. Remember, this guy backstopped Ottawa to the Stanley Cup Finals several years ago and won seven games in 10 starts for Anaheim last season. Keep an eye on this developing situation.

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Evgeni Nabokov Activated from Injured Reserve

The 14th placed New York Islanders have activated goaltender Evgeni Nabokov off injured reserve. With very little fantasy owners owning him, he may be worth looking into for some depth.

The 36 year-old Nabokov began the season with a horrible 1-5-0 record in 8 games started. Of the time played, Nabokov has a rather high 2.83 goals against average and a .910 save percentage. So why in the world would any fantasy owner be interested in him?

Nabokov’s career has been played with the San Jose Sharks where he won the Calder Memorial Trophy for rookie of the year in 2000-2001. Since then, his stats have not been Patrick Roy like, but still a solid number one net-minder. In his 571 games played he has a winning record of 294-183-29-51 with a 2.39 goals against average and a .912 save percentage. Furthermore, his playoff stats have been 2 games over .500 with 40 wins and a 2.29 goals against average with a .913 save percentage.

OK, the stats have been pumped but why is Nabokov a potential steal in fantasy pools? Nabokov is a solid net-minder despite lacking a team in front of him with the New york Islanders. He may not get as many wins as some other goalies but he will definitely get a decent save percentage by facing an average of 31.1 shots per game (21st in the NHL). The Islanders are still young and developing, they can only get better as a team. The real possibility however comes in the possibility of a trade.

Last year Nabokov made headlines by being signed as a free agent by the Detroit Red Wings. However, due to his play oversees, Nabokov needed to clear waivers before re-entering the NHL. This is where the New York Islanders came to pick him up and tried to work out a trade. Nabokov on the other hand refused to play, eventually was suspended and sat out the remainder of the year. Well he is back, the Islanders still need a goaltender and the Red Wings may be willing to trade. Backup Ty Conklin has only seen 4 starts, a 1-3-0 record with a 3.26 goals against average. Ouch!

Conklin may not be a trade interest for the Islanders, however, the Red Wings do have 22 year-old Thomas McCollum. McCollum is young, currently playing in the ECHL with the Toledo Walleye. His stats are not quite there but the Red Wings have belief in his potential. Not needing a goalie for quite some time with 27 year-old Jimmy Howard, on top of possibly willing to trade winger Dan Cleary, the Red Wings may be interested in Nabokov once again.

Nabokov is not going anywhere for a while, not until he starts posting a few wins. Be on the lookout for buzz about a possible trade. Once that starts to hit the headlines Nabokov might be of interest.

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